Research | International Trade & Trade Policy

Research Interests & Contributions

I am an empirical international trade economist. I believe in theoretically founded empirical work. I like my data sets large. And I enjoy developing methods to address policy relevant questions. My main research interests are in the area of structural gravity, modeling and estimation, and the measurement and aggregation of trade costs.
 
Most of my research efforts so far aim at developing structural methods that can be used to translate bilateral trade policy shocks into changes in economic outcomes at the national level including decomposing the effects of trade policy on consumers and producers (AER, 2010) and evaluating the effects of trade agreemtns on terms of trade (JIE, 2016a). This agenda has evolved in my recent efforts to build a structural dynamic gravity estimation framework (NBER, 2015a) and to develop a toolkit that can be used to obtain general equilibrium trade policy effects directly in Stata (CESifo, 2015).
 
Another related area of interest to me is the measurement and aggregation of trade costs. My contributions on that front include: proposing simple solutions to the ‘distance puzzle’ (EL, 2012) and to the ‘missing globalization puzzle’ (EER, 2015); estimating the effects of free trade agreements (JIE, 2016a); accounting for scale economies of trade costs (JIE, 2016b); and estimating trade costs in services (IER, 2014, NBER, 2015b). On the GE side, I have proposed (jointly with Jim Anderson) the Constructed Home Bias index (AER, 2010) and its generalization to the Constructed Trade Bias idex (NBER, 2014), which both measure and aggregate consistently the GE effects of trade costs and trade policy.
 
My current projects expand on my interests in structural gravity modeling and its applications and include the development of a general equilibrium framework of trade and labor with multiple skills as well as a sectoral dynamic gravity model. In addition, I am very excited to venture into several new projects that study the effects of international cartels, embargoes, and the political economy of trade policy.

Working Papers

"On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration,"
with Scott Baier and Thomas Zylkin,
DUSoE Working Paper 2016-15. DU School of Economics.
Revise & Resubmit, Journal of International Economics
Featured in the CESifo Newsletter, November 2016.
Other WP version(s): CESifo

"Policy and Politics: Trade Adjustment Assistance in the Crossfire," with Christopher Laincz and Xenia Matschke,
CESifo Working Paper Series 5697, CESifo Group Munich.
Revise & Resubmit, Canadian Journal of Economics
Other WP version(s): DUSoE

"Growth and Trade with Frictions: A Structural Estimation Framework," with James E. Anderson and Mario Larch,
NBER Working Papers 21377. National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Other WP version(s): Manuscript, Online Appendix, CESifo, DUSoE

"Short Run Gravity," with James E. Anderson,
NBER Working Papers 23458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Other WP version(s): CESifo, BCWP

"The Currency Union Effect: A PPML Re-assessment with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects," with Larch, Wanner and Zylkin,
School of Economics Working Paper Series 2017-7, Drexel University.
This paper should be cited when using ppml_panel_sg, a fast Stata command for PPML estimations with high-dimensional fixed effects.
This command was developed by my former and very talented student Thomas Zylkin.
Other WP version(s): CESifo

"Dark Costs, Missing Data: Shedding Some Light on Services Trade," with James E. Anderson, Ingo Borchert, and Aaditya Mattoo,
NBER Working Papers 21546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Other WP version(s): PRWPS, CESifo, DUSoE

"Estimating General Equilibrium Trade Policy Effects: GE PPML," with James E. Anderson and Mario Larch,
CESifo Working Paper Series 5446, CESifo Group Munich.
Other WP version(s): DUSoE

"Intra-national Trade Costs: Measurement and Aggregation," with Delina Agnosteva and James E. Anderson,
NBER Working Papers 19872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Other WP version(s): DUSoE

"Specialization: Pro- and Anti-globalizing, 1990-2002," with James E. Anderson,
NBER Working Papers 16301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Other WP version(s): CAGEWP

Refereed Journal Publications

"The Changing Incidence of Geography", with James E. Anderson,
American Economic Review, vol. 100(5), pages 2157-86, December 2010.
Earlier WP version(s): NBER, BCWPE

"Trade-Induced Unemployment: How Much Do We Care?"
Review of International Economics, vol. 18(5), pages 972-989, November 2010.
Earlier WP version(s): Manusript

"Intraindustry trade and the skill premium: Theory and evidence", with Elias Dinopoulos, Constantinos Syropoulos and Bin Xu,
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 15-25, May 2011.
Earlier WP version(s): Manusript

"Dynamic gravity: endogenous country size and asset accumulation", with Maria Olivero,
Canadian Journal of Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 64-92, February 2012.
Earlier WP version(s): Manuscript

"A simple solution to the distance puzzle in international trade",
Economics Letters, vol. 117(3), pages 794-798, December 2012.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE

"Trade Adjustment, Political Pressure, And Trade Protection Patterns",
Economic Inquiry, vol. 51(3), pages 1867-1885, July 2013.
Earlier WP version(s): Manuscript

"How Much Does Geography Deflect Services Trade? Canadian Answers", with James E. Anderson, and Catherine A. Milot,
International Economic Review, vol 55(3), pages 791–818, August 2014.
Earlier WP version(s): NBER, DUSoE

"On the trade-diversion effects of free trade agreements", with Mian Dai and Thomas Zylkin,
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 321-325, February, 2014.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE

"Firm Heterogeneity and Trade-Induced Layoffs: An Empirical Investigation", with Pinar Uysal and Tom Zylkin,
European Economic Review, vol. 75, pages 80-97, April 2015.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE

"Economic Integration Agreements, Border Effects, and Distance Elasticities in the Gravity Equation", with Bergstrand and Larch,
European Economic Review, vol. 78, pages 307-327, August 2015.
Earlier WP version(s): CESIfo, DUSoE

"Estimating Bulgaria's Trade Borders with the EU: An Application of the Empirical Gravity Model of Trade", with G.Stefanov and D.Iliev,
Business Management, Issue 4, pages 43-63. Svishtov, Bulgaria, 2016.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE.

"Terms of Trade and Global Efficiency Effects of Free Trade Agreements, 1990-2002", with James E. Anderson,
Journal of International Economics, vol. 99, pages 279-298, March 2016.
Earlier WP version(s): NBER, DUSoE, BCWPE

"Gravity with Scale Economies", with James E. Anderson and Mykyta Vesselovsky,
Journal of International Economics, vol. 100, pages 174-193, May 2016.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE, NBER

"On the Impact of TTIP in Southeastern and Eastern Europe: A Quantitative Analysis", with Mario Larch,
Economic Thought, Issue 3, pages 74-92, Sofia, Bulgaria, 2017.
Reprinted in "Bulgarian-Macedonian Scientific and Innovation Cooperation" Eds. Chobanova and Kocarev, Sofia-Skopje, 2017.

"When and How Country Reputation Stimulates Export Volume", with Boryana Dimitrova and Daniel Korschun,
International Marketing Review, vol. 34(3), pages 377-402, 2017.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE.

"Distance, Globalization, and International Trade", with Ingo Borchert,
Economics Letters, vol. 153(C), pages 32-38, 2017.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE, CESifo

Books, Monographs, Chapters, Op-eds

"Good News on Free Trade Agreements," 2011, with James E. Anderson,
VoxEU column based on the NBER WP 17003 "Terms of Trade and Global Efficiency Effects of Free Trade Agreements, 1990-2002".

"Shedding Some Light on Dark Matter: Trade Costs in Services," 2015, with James E. Anderson, Ingo Borchert, and Aaditya Mattoo.
VoxEU column based on the NBER WP 21546 "Dark Costs, Missing Data: Shedding Some Light on Services Trade".

"Estimating Trade Policy Effects with Structural Gravity," 2016, with Roberta Piermartini. WTO Working Paper ERSD-2016-10.
Prepared to contribute to the "Advanced Guide for Trade Policy Analysis with the Strucutural Gravity Model".

"General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis with Structural Gravity," 2016, with Mario Larch. WTO Working Paper ERSD-2016-08.
Prepared to contribute to the "Advanced Guide for Trade Policy Analysis with the Strucutural Gravity Model".

"On the Effects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership on Trade and Capital Accumulation," 2015, with Anderson and Larch. Prepared to contribute to the CESifo Venice Institute volume "Regional Mega Deals: New Trends, New Models, New Insights".

"An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model," 2016, with Mario Larch, Jose-Antonio Monteiro and Roberta Piermartini. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and World Trade Organization, Geneva.

"One size does not fit all: On the heterogeneous impact of free trade agreements," 2017, with Scott Baier and Thomas Zylkin,
VoxEU column based on the DUSoE Working Paper 2016-15 "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons
from twenty years of trade integration".

"Gravity, Distance, and International Trade," 2017, with Scott Baier and Amanda Kerr. DUSoE Working Paper 2017-05.
Prepared to contribute to the "Handbook of International Trade and Transportation", Editors Bruce Blonigen and Wesley Wilson.

"America’s worsening global reputation could put billions in US exports at risk", 2017, with Boryana Dimitrova and Daniel Korschun,
The Conversation based on the DUSoE Working Paper 2015-04 "When and How Country Reputation Stimulates Export Volume".