Research | International Trade & Trade Policy

Research Interests & Contributions

I am an applied international trade economist who firmly believes in theoretically-founded empirical work. I enjoy developing structural methods to address specific policy-relevant questions and I find it very rewarding to translate rigorous academic research to wider audiences, e.g. students and policy makers. My main research interests and contributions are in two interrelated areas: (i) structural gravity modeling and applications; and (ii) gravity estimation and measurement, decomposition and aggregation of partial and general equilibrium trade costs. In addition, I have ventured into several other trade-related topics (including embargoes and sanctions, international cartels, security and trade, trade and labor market interactions at the firm level, and political economy of trade policy) that I find intellectually stimulating. More information about my research and my contributions to the trade literature can be found in my Research Statement

Working Papers

"Growth and Trade with Frictions: A Structural Estimation Framework," with James E. Anderson and Mario Larch,
NBER Working Papers 21377. National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Revise & Resubmit, The Economic Journal
Other WP version(s): Manuscript, Online Appendix, CESifo, DUSoE

"On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration,"
with Scott Baier and Thomas Zylkin, DUSoE Working Paper 2016-15. DU School of Economics.
Revise & Resubmit, Journal of International Economics
Featured in the CESifo Newsletter, November 2016.
Other WP version(s): CESifo

"Policy and Politics: Trade Adjustment Assistance in the Crossfire," with Christopher Laincz and Xenia Matschke,
CESifo Working Paper Series 5697, CESifo Group Munich.
Revise & Resubmit, Canadian Journal of Economics
Other WP version(s): DUSoE

"Short Run Gravity," with James E. Anderson,
NBER Working Papers 23458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Other WP version(s): CESifo, BCWP

"The Currency Union Effect: A PPML Re-assessment with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects," with Larch, Wanner and Zylkin,
School of Economics Working Paper Series 2017-7, Drexel University.
This paper should be cited when using ppml_panel_sg, a fast Stata command for PPML estimations with high-dimensional fixed effects.
This command was developed by my former and very talented student Thomas Zylkin.
Other WP version(s): CESifo

"Dark Costs, Missing Data: Shedding Some Light on Services Trade," with James E. Anderson, Ingo Borchert, and Aaditya Mattoo,
NBER Working Papers 21546, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Other WP version(s): PRWPS, CESifo, DUSoE

"Estimating General Equilibrium Trade Policy Effects: GE PPML," with James E. Anderson and Mario Larch,
CESifo Working Paper Series 5446, CESifo Group Munich.
Other WP version(s): DUSoE

"Intra-national Trade Costs: Measurement and Aggregation," with Delina Agnosteva and James E. Anderson,
NBER Working Papers 19872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Other WP version(s): DUSoE

"Specialization: Pro- and Anti-globalizing, 1990-2002," with James E. Anderson,
NBER Working Papers 16301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Other WP version(s): CAGEWP

Refereed Journal Publications

"The Changing Incidence of Geography", with James E. Anderson,
American Economic Review, vol. 100(5), pages 2157-86, December 2010.
Earlier WP version(s): NBER, BCWPE

"Trade-Induced Unemployment: How Much Do We Care?"
Review of International Economics, vol. 18(5), pages 972-989, November 2010.
Earlier WP version(s): Manusript

"Intraindustry trade and the skill premium: Theory and evidence", with Elias Dinopoulos, Constantinos Syropoulos and Bin Xu,
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 15-25, May 2011.
Earlier WP version(s): Manusript

"Dynamic gravity: endogenous country size and asset accumulation", with Maria Olivero,
Canadian Journal of Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 64-92, February 2012.
Earlier WP version(s): Manuscript

"A simple solution to the distance puzzle in international trade",
Economics Letters, vol. 117(3), pages 794-798, December 2012.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE

"Trade Adjustment, Political Pressure, And Trade Protection Patterns",
Economic Inquiry, vol. 51(3), pages 1867-1885, July 2013.
Earlier WP version(s): Manuscript

"How Much Does Geography Deflect Services Trade? Canadian Answers", with James E. Anderson, and Catherine A. Milot,
International Economic Review, vol 55(3), pages 791–818, August 2014.
Earlier WP version(s): NBER, DUSoE

"On the trade-diversion effects of free trade agreements", with Mian Dai and Thomas Zylkin,
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 321-325, February, 2014.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE

"Firm Heterogeneity and Trade-Induced Layoffs: An Empirical Investigation", with Pinar Uysal and Tom Zylkin,
European Economic Review, vol. 75, pages 80-97, April 2015.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE

"Economic Integration Agreements, Border Effects, and Distance Elasticities in the Gravity Equation", with Bergstrand and Larch,
European Economic Review, vol. 78, pages 307-327, August 2015.
Earlier WP version(s): CESIfo, DUSoE

"Estimating Bulgaria's Trade Borders with the EU: An Application of the Empirical Gravity Model of Trade", with G.Stefanov and D.Iliev,
Business Management, Issue 4, pages 43-63. Svishtov, Bulgaria, 2016.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE.

"Terms of Trade and Global Efficiency Effects of Free Trade Agreements, 1990-2002", with James E. Anderson,
Journal of International Economics, vol. 99, pages 279-298, March 2016.
Earlier WP version(s): NBER, DUSoE, BCWPE

"Gravity with Scale Economies", with James E. Anderson and Mykyta Vesselovsky,
Journal of International Economics, vol. 100, pages 174-193, May 2016.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE, NBER

"On the Impact of TTIP in Southeastern and Eastern Europe: A Quantitative Analysis", with Mario Larch,
Economic Thought, Issue 3, pages 74-92, Sofia, Bulgaria, 2017.
Reprinted in "Bulgarian-Macedonian Scientific and Innovation Cooperation" Eds. Chobanova and Kocarev, Sofia-Skopje, 2017.

"When and How Country Reputation Stimulates Export Volume", with Boryana Dimitrova and Daniel Korschun,
International Marketing Review, vol. 34(3), pages 377-402, 2017.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE.

"Distance, Globalization, and International Trade", with Ingo Borchert,
Economics Letters, vol. 153(C), pages 32-38, 2017.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE, CESifo

Books, Monographs, Chapters, Op-eds

"Good News on Free Trade Agreements," 2011, with James E. Anderson,
VoxEU column based on the NBER WP 17003 "Terms of Trade and Global Efficiency Effects of Free Trade Agreements, 1990-2002".

"Shedding Some Light on Dark Matter: Trade Costs in Services," 2015, with James E. Anderson, Ingo Borchert, and Aaditya Mattoo.
VoxEU column based on the NBER WP 21546 "Dark Costs, Missing Data: Shedding Some Light on Services Trade".

"Estimating Trade Policy Effects with Structural Gravity," 2016, with Roberta Piermartini. WTO Working Paper ERSD-2016-10.
Prepared to contribute to the "Advanced Guide for Trade Policy Analysis with the Strucutural Gravity Model".

"General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis with Structural Gravity," 2016, with Mario Larch. WTO Working Paper ERSD-2016-08.
Prepared to contribute to the "Advanced Guide for Trade Policy Analysis with the Strucutural Gravity Model".

"On the Effects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership on Trade and Capital Accumulation," 2015, with Anderson and Larch. Prepared to contribute to the CESifo Venice Institute volume "Regional Mega Deals: New Trends, New Models, New Insights".

"An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model," 2016, with Mario Larch, Jose-Antonio Monteiro and Roberta Piermartini. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and World Trade Organization, Geneva.

"One size does not fit all: On the heterogeneous impact of free trade agreements," 2017, with Scott Baier and Thomas Zylkin,
VoxEU column based on the DUSoE Working Paper 2016-15 "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons
from twenty years of trade integration".

"Gravity, Distance, and International Trade," 2017, with Scott Baier and Amanda Kerr. DUSoE Working Paper 2017-05.
Prepared to contribute to the "Handbook of International Trade and Transportation", Editors Bruce Blonigen and Wesley Wilson.

"America’s worsening global reputation could put billions in US exports at risk", 2017, with Boryana Dimitrova and Daniel Korschun,
The Conversation based on the DUSoE Working Paper 2015-04 "When and How Country Reputation Stimulates Export Volume".