Research | International Trade & Trade Policy

Research Interests & Contributions

I am an applied international trade economist who firmly believes in theory-founded empirical work. I enjoy developing methods to address specific policy-relevant questions, and I find it very rewarding to translate rigorous academic research to wider audiences, e.g. students and policy makers. My main research interests and contributions are in two interrelated areas: (i) structural gravity modeling and applications; and (ii) gravity estimation and measurement, decomposition, and aggregation of partial and general equilibrium trade costs. In addition, I have ventured into several other trade-related topics that I find intellectually stimulating (e.g., embargoes and sanctions, international cartels, trade dynamics, trade and labor market interactions at the firm level, and political economy of trade policy). More information about my research and my contributions to the trade literature can be found in my Research Statement

Recent/Active Working Papers

"Gender Inequality in the Aftermath of Negative Trade Shocks: Evidence from U.S," with Ghosh, Larch, and Murtazashvili,
School of Economics Working Paper Series 2018-9, Drexel University.
Revise & Resubmit, Economica. Other WP version(s): DUSoE

"On the Heterogeneous Effects of Sanctions on Trade and Welfare: Evidence from the Sanctions on Iran and a New Database ,"
with Gabriel Felbermayr, Costas Syropoulos, and Erdal Yalcin,
School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-04, Drexel University.
Revise & Resubmit, Canadian Journal of Economics.
Other WP version(s): ifw Kiel-WP

"Gravity-model Estimation with Time-interval Data: Revisiting the Impact of Free Trade Agreements," with Peter Egger and Mario Larch,
School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-11, Drexel University.
Revise & Resubmit, Economica.
Other WP version(s): CESifo

"On the Heterogeneous Trade and Welfare Effects of GATT/WTO Membership," with Gabriel Felbermayr, Mario Larch, and Erdal Yalcin,
School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-12, Drexel University.
Revise & Resubmit, Review of World Economics.
Other WP version(s): ifw Kiel-WP

"The Variation of Gravity within Countries,"
School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-12, Drexel University.
Other WP version(s): CESifo,

"Pound for Pound Export Diversification," with James E. Anderson,
School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-14, Drexel University.
Other WP version(s): NBER

"One Nation, One Language? Domestic Language Diversity, Trade and Welfare," with T. Gurevich, P. R. Herman, and F. Toubal,
School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-8, Drexel University.
Other WP version(s): USITC WP, CESifo, CEPII

"Quantifying the Impact of Economic Sanctions on International Trade in the Energy and Mining Sectors ,"
with M. Larch, S. Shikher, and C. Syropoulos,
School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-9, Drexel University.
Other WP version(s): CESifo

"Institutions, Trade and Development: A Quantitative Analysis," with Cosimo Beverelli, Alexander Keck and Mario Larch,.
School of Economics Working Paper Series 2018-003, Drexel University.
Other WP version(s): CESifo

"Preferential Trade Liberalization with Endogenous Cartel Discipline: Implications for Welfare and Optimal Trade Policies," with Delina Agnosteva and Costas Syropoulos,
School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-09, Drexel University.
Other WP version(s): CESifo

"On the effects of GATT/WTO membership on trade: They are positive and large after all," with Larch, Monteiro, and Piermartini,
School of Economics Working Paper Series 2019-5, Drexel University.
Other WP version(s): WTO-ERSD, CESifo

Older/Retired Working Papers

"Trade Costs in the Global Economy: Measurement, Aggregation and Decomposition,"
with Peter H. Egger, Mario Larch, and Sergey Nigai.
Report prepared for the World Trade Organization's WTO Trade Cost Index, http://tradecosts.wto.org

"Multimarket Linkages, Cartel Discipline and Trade Costs," with Delina Agnosteva and Costas Syropoulos,
School of Economics Working Paper Series 2018-4, Drexel University.
Other WP version(s): CESifo

"Trade Liberalization with Heterogeneous Workers: A Structural Approach,," with Scott Baier and Serge Shikher,
US ITC Working Paper No. 2017-03-A, U.S. International Trade Commission.

"Specialization: Pro- and Anti-globalizing, 1990-2002," with James E. Anderson,
NBER Working Papers 16301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Other WP version(s): CAGEWP

Refereed Journal Publications

"The Changing Incidence of Geography", with James E. Anderson,
American Economic Review, vol. 100(5), pages 2157-86, December 2010.
Earlier WP version(s): NBER, BCWPE

"Trade-Induced Unemployment: How Much Do We Care?"
Review of International Economics, vol. 18(5), pages 972-989, November 2010.
Earlier WP version(s): Manusript

"Intraindustry trade and the skill premium: Theory and evidence", with Elias Dinopoulos, Constantinos Syropoulos and Bin Xu,
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 15-25, May 2011.
Earlier WP version(s): Manusript

"Dynamic gravity: endogenous country size and asset accumulation", with Maria Olivero,
Canadian Journal of Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 64-92, February 2012.
Earlier WP version(s): Manuscript
Top-5 most cited article from 2010 to 2020.

"A simple solution to the distance puzzle in international trade",
Economics Letters, vol. 117(3), pages 794-798, December 2012.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE

"Trade Adjustment, Political Pressure, And Trade Protection Patterns",
Economic Inquiry, vol. 51(3), pages 1867-1885, July 2013.
Earlier WP version(s): Manuscript

"How Much Does Geography Deflect Services Trade? Canadian Answers", with James E. Anderson, and Catherine A. Milot,
International Economic Review, vol 55(3), pages 791–818, August 2014.
Earlier WP version(s): NBER, DUSoE

"On the trade-diversion effects of free trade agreements", with Mian Dai and Thomas Zylkin,
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 321-325, February, 2014.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE

"Firm Heterogeneity and Trade-Induced Layoffs: An Empirical Investigation", with Pinar Uysal and Tom Zylkin,
European Economic Review, vol. 75, pages 80-97, April 2015.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE

"Economic Integration Agreements, Border Effects, and Distance Elasticities in the Gravity Equation", with Bergstrand and Larch,
European Economic Review, vol. 78, pages 307-327, August 2015.
Earlier WP version(s): CESIfo, DUSoE
Top-5 most cited article from 2015 to 2019.

"Estimating Bulgaria's Trade Borders with the EU: An Application of the Empirical Gravity Model of Trade", with G.Stefanov and D.Iliev,
Business Management, Issue 4, pages 43-63. Svishtov, Bulgaria, 2016.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE.

"Terms of Trade and Global Efficiency Effects of Free Trade Agreements, 1990-2002", with James E. Anderson,
Journal of International Economics, vol. 99, pages 279-298, March 2016.
Earlier WP version(s): NBER, DUSoE, BCWPE

"Gravity with Scale Economies", with James E. Anderson and Mykyta Vesselovsky,
Journal of International Economics, vol. 100, pages 174-193, May 2016.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE, NBER

"On the Impact of TTIP in Southeastern and Eastern Europe: A Quantitative Analysis", with Mario Larch,
Economic Thought, Issue 3, pages 74-92, Sofia, Bulgaria, 2017.
Reprinted in "Bulgarian-Macedonian Scientific and Innovation Cooperation" Eds. Chobanova and Kocarev, Sofia-Skopje, 2017.

"When and How Country Reputation Stimulates Export Volume", with Boryana Dimitrova and Daniel Korschun,
International Marketing Review, vol. 34(3), pages 377-402, 2017.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE.

"Distance, Globalization, and International Trade", with Ingo Borchert,
Economics Letters, vol. 153(C), pages 32-38, 2017.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE, CESifo

"Estimating General Equilibrium Trade Policy Effects: GE PPML", with James E. Anderson and Mario Larch,
The World Economy , https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12664, 2018.
Earlier WP version(s): CESifo, DUSoE
Top-5 most cited article from 2018 to 2021.

"Dark Costs, Missing Data: Shedding Some Light on Services Trade", with James E. Anderson, Ingo Borchert, and Aaditya Mattoo,
European Economic Review , vol.105, pages 193-214, 2018.
Earlier WP version(s): NBER, PRWPS, CESifo, DUSoE

"On the Bi- and Uni-lateral Trade Effects of EMU Membership", with Mario Larch and Joschka Wanner,
Economics Letters, vol. 171, pages 230-234, 2018.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE

"The Currency Union Effect: A PPML Re-assessment with High-Dimensional Fixed Effects", with Larch, Wanner and Zylkin,
Lead Article, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 81(3), pages 487-510, 2019.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE, CESifo
Top-5 most cited article from 2016 to 2021.

"Intra-national Trade Costs: Measurement and Aggregation," with Delina Agnosteva and James E. Anderson,
European Economic Review, vol. 112, pages 32-50, 2019.
Earlier WP version(s): NBER, DUSoE
Listed in most cited articles from 2018 to 2021.

"On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of integration", with Baier and Zylkin,
Journal of International Economics, vol. 116, pages 206-226, 2019.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE , CESifo.
Featured in the CESifo Newsletter, November 2016
Most cited article from 2018 to 2021.

"Trade and Investment in the Global Economy: A Multi-country Dynamic Analysis," with James E. Anderson and Mario Larch,
European Economic Review, vol. 120, November 2019.
Other WP version(s): DUSoE, CESifo, NBER

"Arming in the Global Economy: The Importance of Trade with Enemies and Friends," with M. R. Garfinkel and C. Syropoulos.
Journal of International Economics, vol. 123, March 2020.
Earlier WP version(s): CESifo, DUSoE

"Growth and Trade with Frictions: A Structural Estimation Framework," with James E. Anderson and Mario Larch,
The Economic Journal, Vol. 130(630), August 2020.
Earlier WP version(s): NBER, CESifo, DUSoE

"Short Run Gravity," with James E. Anderson,
Journal of International Economics, Vol. 126, September 2020.
Earlier WP version(s): CESifo, BCWP, NBER

"The International Trade and Production Database for Estimation (ITPD-E)," with Ingo Borchert, Mario Larch, and Serge Shikher,
International Economics, August, 2020.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE

"The Global Sanctions Data Base,"
with Gabriel Felbermayr, Aleksandra Kirilakha, Costas Syropoulos, and Erdal Yalcin,
European Economic Review, Vol. 129, October, 2020.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE

"Estimating the Effects of Non-discriminatory Trade Policies within Structural Gravity Models," with B. Heid and M. Larch.
Canadian Journal of Economics, 2021.
Earlier WP version(s): CESifo, DUSoE

"Understanding Economic Sanctions: Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Theory and Evidence,"
with G. Felbermayr, T. C. Morgan, and C. Syropoulos,
European Economic Review, 2021.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE

"Disaggregated Gravity: Benchmark Estimates and Stylized Facts from a New Database," with Borchert, Larch, and Shikher,
Review of International Economics, 2021
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE

"Policy and Politics: Trade Adjustment Assistance in the Crossfire," with Christopher Laincz and Xenia Matschke,
Canadian Journal of Economics, 2021.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE, CESifo

"From Theory to Policy with Gravitas: A Solution to the Mystery of the Excess Trade Balances," with Gabriel Felbermayr,
European Economic Review, 2021.
Earlier WP version(s): DUSoE, KielWP, CESifo

Books, Monographs, Chapters, Op-eds

"Good News on Free Trade Agreements," 2011, with James E. Anderson,
VoxEU column based on the NBER WP 17003 "Terms of Trade and Global Efficiency Effects of Free Trade Agreements, 1990-2002".

"Agricultural Policy, Gravity and Welfare," 2011, with Paul E. Jensen,
Policy Brief, International Growth Centre.

"On the Effects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership on Trade and Capital Accumulation," 2015, with Anderson and Larch. Prepared to contribute to the CESifo Venice Institute volume "Regional Mega Deals: New Trends, New Models, New Insights".

"Shedding Some Light on Dark Matter: Trade Costs in Services," 2015, with James E. Anderson, Ingo Borchert, and Aaditya Mattoo.
VoxEU column based on the NBER WP 21546 "Dark Costs, Missing Data: Shedding Some Light on Services Trade".

"Estimating Trade Policy Effects with Structural Gravity," 2016, with Roberta Piermartini. WTO Working Paper ERSD-2016-10.
Prepared to contribute to the "Advanced Guide for Trade Policy Analysis with the Strucutural Gravity Model".

"General Equilibrium Trade Policy Analysis with Structural Gravity," 2016, with Mario Larch. WTO Working Paper ERSD-2016-08.
Prepared to contribute to the "Advanced Guide for Trade Policy Analysis with the Strucutural Gravity Model".

"An Advanced Guide to Trade Policy Analysis: The Structural Gravity Model," 2016, with Mario Larch, Jose-Antonio Monteiro and Roberta Piermartini. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and World Trade Organization, Geneva.

""On the Impact of TTIP in Southeastern and Eastern Europe: A Quantitative Analysis,"" 2017, with Mario Larch. Prepared to contribute to "Bulgarian-Macedonian Scientific and Innovation Cooperation" Editors R. Chobanova and L. Kocarev, Sofia-Skopje, 2017.

"One size does not fit all: On the heterogeneous impact of free trade agreements," 2017, with Scott Baier and Thomas Zylkin,
VoxEU column based on the DUSoE Working Paper 2016-15 "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons
from twenty years of trade integration".

"America’s worsening global reputation could put billions in US exports at risk", 2017, with Boryana Dimitrova and Daniel Korschun,
The Conversation based on the DUSoE Working Paper 2015-04 "When and How Country Reputation Stimulates Export Volume".

"Gravity, Distance, and International Trade," 2017, with Scott Baier and Amanda Kerr. DUSoE Working Paper 2017-05.
Prepared to contribute to the "Handbook of International Trade and Transportation", Editors Bruce Blonigen and Wesley Wilson.

"On the Economic Impact of FDI and Trade Liberalization in the Asia-Pacific Region: A Structural Quantitative Analysis" 2017, with Mario Larch. Prepared to contribute to the "Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Report (APTIR)" by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).

"Evaluation of the Implementation of the Free Trade Agreement between the EU and its Member States and the Republic of Korea" 2017, with with M. Braml, G. Felbermayr, M. Larch, C. W. Nam, and M. Steininger. Policy Report repared for the European Commission.

"Trade and Investment in the Global economy," 2019, with James E. Anderson and Mario Larch, VoxEU column based on the
European Ecoomic Review article "Trade and Investment in the Global Economy: A Multi-country Dynamic Analysis".

"Trade Effects of WTO: They're Real and They're Spectacular," 2019, with M. Larch, J.-A. Monteiro, and R. Piermartini, VoxEU column based on the article "On the Effects of GATT/WTO Membership on Trade: They are Positive and Large after All".

"The World Trade Organization at 25: Assessing the Economic Value of the Rules Based Global Trading System," 2019, with G. Felbermayr, M. Larch, and E. Yalcin. Policy Report prepared for Bertelsmann Stiftung, based on the Drexel working paper "On the Heterogeneous Trade and Welfare Effects of GATT/WTO Membership.

"The Global Sanctions Data Base," 2020, with with G. Felbermayr, A. Kirilakha, C. Syropoulos, and E. Yalcin, VoxEU column column based on the paper with same title at the European Economic Review.

"Where Was Globalization Hiding? And How Far Might It Go?" 2020, with with James E. Anderson, VoxEU column column based on the paper "Short Run Gravity" at the Journal of International Economics.

"The Global Sanctions Data Base: An Update to Include the Years of the Trump Presidency," 2021, with G. Felbermayr, A. Kirilakha, C. Syropoulos, and E. Yalcin. Drexel SoE WP Series 2021-09. Prepared to contribute to the Research Handbook on Economic Sanctions, edited by Peter A.G. van Bergeijk.

"A Solution to the Mystery of the Excess Trade Balances," 2021, with Gabriel Felbermayr. VoxEU column based on the paper "From Theory to Policy with Gravitas: A Solution to the Mystery of the Excess Trade Balances" at the European Ecopnomic Review.

"Trade Costs in the Global Economy: Measurement, Aggregation and Decomposition," 2021, with Peter H. Egger, Mario Larch, and Sergey Nigai. Report prepared for the World Trade Organization's WTO Trade Cost Index, http://tradecosts.wto.org

"The Global Sanctions Data Base: Mapping International Sanction Policies during 1950-2019," 2021, with G. Felbermayr, A. Kirilakha, C. Syropoulos, and E. Yalcin. VoxEU column based on the paper "The Global Sanctions Data Base: An Update to Include the Years of the Trump Presidency," Drexel SoE WP Series 2021-09.

"Timing the Impact of Sanctions on Trade," 2021, with M. Dai, G. Felbermayr, A. Kirilakha, C. Syropoulos, and E. Yalcin. Drexel SoE WP Series 2021-07. Prepared to contribute to the Research Handbook on Economic Sanctions, edited by Peter A.G. van Bergeijk.

Datasets

I have participated in the development and testing of three datasets: The International Trade and Production Database for Estimation (ITPD-E), The Global Sanctions DataBase (GSDB), and The Domestic and International Common Language (DICL) database. All three databases are free public goods, which my co-authors and I hope would be useful to researchers and policy makers.

The International Trade and Production Database for Estimation (ITPD-E)

The ITPD-E was created jointly with Ingo Borchert, Mario Larch, and Serge Shikher. The ITPD-E contains consistent data on international and domestic trade at the industry level covering agriculture, mining, energy, manufacturing, and services. The ITPD-E provides wide and detailed coverage over 17 years (2000-2016), 243 countries, and 170 industries. The ITPD-E is constructed using reported administrative data and intentionally does not include information estimated by statistical techniques, which makes the ITPD-E well suited for estimation of economic models, such as the gravity model of trade. The ITPD-E is the first member of a family of international trade and production databases. Our team is currently developing second member of this family, The International Trade and Production Database for Simulation (ITPD-S). The ITPD-E has its own web site, and I refer the interested readers to the following papers that describe and test the data.

"The International Trade and Production Database for Estimation (ITPD-E)",
with Ingo Borchert, Mario Larch, and Serge Shikher,
International Economics, August, 2020.

"Disaggregated Gravity: Benchmark Estimates and Stylized Facts from a New Database",
with Ingo Borchert, Mario Larch, and Serge Shikher,
Review of International Economics, May, 2021.

The Global Sanctions DataBase (GSDB)

The GSDB was created jointly with G. Felbermayr, A. Khirilakha, C. Syropoulos, and E. Yalcin. The original version of the GSDB (2020) covered all publicly traceable sanctions in the world over the period 1950-2016, and included 729 sanction cases. The first update of the GSDB (2021) covered the period 1950-2019 and included a total of 1101 sanction cases. The sanctions in the GSDB are classified along three dimensions: by objective, by success, and by type. The GSDB distinguishes between nine categories of sanctions based on the following objectives: to change policy, to destabilize a regime, to resolve territorial conflict, to prevent war, to end war, to prevent the rise of terrorist groups, to end human rights violations, to restore democracy, and other objectives. Depending on how successful they are in achieving their objectives, the GSDB classifies sanctions in several categories, ranging from complete failure to complete success. Finally, the GSDB distinguishes between six types of sanctions that are affecting: trade, financial activity, arms, military assistance, travel, and other sanctions. Specific attention in the GSDB is paid to trade sanctions, which are classified depending on their coverage/stringency as partial vs. complete, and depending on the direction of trade flows as export sanctions vs. import sanctions vs. bilateral sanctions. The GSDB has its own web site, and the data can be obtained by e-mailing GSDB@drexel.edu. For details on the GSDB and its uses, I refer the interested readers to the following papers:

"The Global Sanctions Data Base",
with Gabriel Felbermayr, Aleksandra Kirilakha, Constantinos Syropoulos, and Erdal Yalcin,
European Economic Review, Vol. 129, October, 2020.

"On the Heterogeneous Effects of Sanctions on Trade and Welfare: Evidence from the Sanctions on Iran and a New Database",
with Gabriel Felbermayr, Constantinos Syropoulos, and Erdal Yalcin,
Canadian Journal of Economics, Revise & Resubmit.

"The Global Sanctions Data Base: An Update to Include the Years of the Trump Presidency",
with Aleksandra Kirilakha, Gabriel Felbermayr, Constantinos Syropoulos, and Erdal Yalcin,
Research Handbook on Economic Sanctions, edited by Peter A.G. van Bergeijk.

The Domestic and International Common Language (DICL) database

The DICL database was created jointly with T. Gurevich, P. R. Herman, and F. Toubal. The DICL database contains index measures of linguistic similarity both domestically and internationally. The DICL includes bilateral indexes for 242 countries based on 6,534 individual languages. The domestic measures capture linguistic similarities present among populations within a single country while the international indexes capture language similarities between two different countries. The indexes reflect three aspects of language: common official languages, common native languages, and linguistic proximity across languages. This database has many uses, such as in in models of bilateral flows—including FDI, migration, and international trade—as well as in regional or country level analyses. The DICL database has its own web site, and I refer the interested readers to the following papers that describe and test the data:

"One Nation, One Language? Domestic Language Diversity, Trade and Welfare",
with T. Gurevich, P. R. Herman, and F. Toubal,
School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-8, Drexel University.

"Domestic and International Common Language (DICL) Database: Technical Note",
with T. Gurevich, P. R. Herman, and F. Toubal,
United States International Trade Commission, USITC.